Wednesday, December 7, 2022

M’sian Think Tank Project predicts that PH will win big in GE15, with 41 close-call seats

NewsM'sian Think Tank Project predicts that PH will win big in GE15,...

Can’t wait for the 15th General Election (GE15) results to be announced? Here’s a projection by Malaysian think-tank Emir Research that would give you hindsight on GE15’s result.

According to its projections, it is predicted that Pakatan Harapan (PH) would win 94 seats, ahead of Barisan Nasional (BN)’s 46, while Perikatan Nasional (PN) gaining only 24 seats.

In addition, Emir Research also predicted that the Gerakan Tanah Air (GTA) coalition led by 96-year-old Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, will probably only gain one seat, which is the Langkawi constituency defended by Dr Mahathir himself.

The results were projected based on a turnout rate of 77%, which is derived based on the poll aggregation that includes EMIR Research’s own projections.

Meanwhile, it was predicted that there will be 41 close-call seats with ±1,000 majority votes.

Source: EMIR Research

Predictions for the 3 main coalitions

Emir Research also expected that PKR leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and his wife, Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail would win the Tambun seat and Bandar Tun Razak seat respectively.

As for UMNO, the forecast predicts that UMNO president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi would lose the battle in Bagan Datuk, MCA president Datuk Seri Wee Ka Siong would be voted out in Ayer Hitam and MIC president Tan Sri SA Vigneswaran is projected to be ousted in Sungai Siput.

Over at PN, it is predicted that Datuk Seri Azmin Ali will lose his seat in Gombak, while PAS would be able to defend its strongholds in Kelantan and Terengganu.

Source: EMIR Research

Projections based on meta-analytical study

The GE15 projections is conducted based on a historical trend analysis by looking up at least 4 general election results, adjusting its with the quarterly sentiment surveys, and modelling the outcomes of the previous general election.

The centre has also conducted a meta-analytical study of the poll results reported by various Malaysia research houses over the period from mid-October to mid-November.

“EMIR Research team has paid attention to the distribution of poll-reported popular votes
across few important demographic variables such as gender, ethnicity, and domicile.”

“Then these results were combined with the actual proportions of those demographics among the voters in various states in Malaysia and averaged using meta-analytical software,” the report reads.

Read the full report here.

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